Methodology
Where every number in this sandbox comes from.
Two repositories, two responsibilities. This page is the boundary statement between them, and the classification system every displayed figure is held to.
Source-of-truth boundary
oar-risk-lab is the validated research and risk-model repository. It defines the OAR constitution — the balance-sheet model, data classification, and stress framework — and computes technical requirements (reserve minimums, collateral boundaries, stress adequacy) from that constitution. This sandbox never modifies, reinterprets, or overrides those figures.
oar-v1-sandbox (this application) is a product prototype. It renders the Risk Lab’s output, adds a local paper ledger for demonstrating Participant and Operator flows, and is explicitly not production, not policy, and not a live investment product.
Nothing here is ratified
Final OAR policy is unset. Zero governance decisions are ratified. The Eligible Systemic Loss Capital (ESLC) concept referenced in Risk Lab research is a candidate only — never canonical protection capital. Canonical Operator First-Loss Capital remains Operator-specific.
Evidence classification
Every figure the Risk Lab computes is tagged with one of five classes (its Phase 2 data specification). The BASE-001 diagnostic run this sandbox’s demo Room replays also uses two further input classes for the business assumptions it was supplied. This sandbox preserves all seven labels rather than collapsing them into a single “value.”
| Class | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Observed | Externally measured (e.g. a market price, order-book depth). |
| Derived | Calculated from observed data or solved from the constitution’s formulas. |
| Stress | An artificial adversarial scenario input — not a forecast. |
| Policy | An OAR constitutional/governance parameter, unset until formally ratified. |
| Provisional | An implementation interpretation adopted where the constitution is ambiguous. |
| Business input | A human-supplied assumption for a specific diagnostic run — not policy, not a forecast. |
| Market input | A human-supplied market-rate assumption for a specific diagnostic run. |
Sandbox provenance
On top of the Risk Lab’s classes, every metric in this sandbox also carries one of four provenance tags, so a reader always knows which repository — and which layer of this application — a figure came from:
| Provenance | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Validated model reference | Copied verbatim from an oar-risk-lab artifact. Never hand-edited. |
| Research diagnostic | A Risk Lab research candidate shown for context — explicitly not policy. |
| Sandbox assumption | Invented for this product demo (e.g. starting paper cash balance) — not risk-lab-derived. |
| Simulated (paper ledger) | Generated live by your own actions in the paper ledger during this session. |
Missing is not zero
The Risk Lab’s BASE-001 run deliberately supplied a partial input set. Fields it left unset — Operator operating costs, protocol fee rates, reserve opportunity cost — are shown in this sandbox as NOT SUPPLIED, never as $0. A dashboard that quietly substitutes zero for a missing input misrepresents solvency; this sandbox does not do that. See the demo Room’s /room/demo/proof page for the current set of not-supplied figures.